POLLING METHODOLOGY

• Likely Republican primary voters in Louisiana, conducted July 19-21, 2025 (3.9% MOE with 95% confidence interval)

• Sample size: 625 (70% cell phones (texted), 30% landlines/cells (live dialed) – “hybrid” poll)

• Race/party: 91% white, 5% black, 4% “Other”/69% Republican, 23% Unaffiliateds, 8% Independents

• Gender: 52% female, 48% male

• Geography (Nielsen media market): Alexandria 6%, Baton Rouge 20%, Lafayette 15%, Lake Charles 6%, Monroe 9%, New Orleans 33%, Shreveport 11% (Explanation is graphically depicted in Exhibit A).

• Note: Independents can now vote in a partisan primary thanks to Act 84 signed into law by Governor Landry

SUMMARY

JMC Analytics and Polling was commissioned to conduct this poll for Dr. John Fleming. There are two main takeaways from this poll: (1) Senator Cassidy remains in serious electoral trouble and has seen his numbers slip since the previous (April) poll, and (2) polling data shows that Dr. Fleming would be Senator Cassidy’s likely runoff opponent, and in a runoff matchup, he has regained a lead over the two-term incumbent senator.

No matter which data point is examined, Senator Cassidy is in electoral peril. Whether he’s polled against multiple candidates or in a head-to-head race with Fleming, he never exceeds 29% support (this is a 5% decrease in support since the previous/April poll). In a ballot test against Sen. Cassidy, Representative Julia Letlow, state senator Blake Miguez, and Chief Compliance Officer Sammy Wyatt, Dr Fleming runs second to Senator Cassidy leading the rest of the pack, and Senator Cassidy only leads with a 24% plurality.

When Dr. Fleming is tested in a hypothetical runoff against Senator Cassidy, a previous 34-32% lead Senator Cassidy had over Fleming has since flipped to a Fleming lead of 7 points (36-29%) over Senator Cassidy – a shift of 9 percentage points against Senator Cassidy’s relative to the last poll. This overall lead Dr Fleming has in a runoff matchup is even wider (42-29%) among registered Republicans, who will dominate the April 2026 primary electorate.

In summary, Fleming has a path to the Republican nomination (and eventual November election) for the U.S. Senate.

Poll conducted by JMC Polling and Analytics